Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Nürnberg U19 vs Bayer Leverkusen U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Nürnberg U19
Nürnberg U19
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Bayer Leverkusen U19
Bayer Leverkusen U19
4/11/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Nürnberg U1938%
×Draw21%
Bayer Leverkusen U1941%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nürnberg U19
1.91
Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 66 away

creates per match

Nürnberg U19
2.46
Bayer Leverkusen U19
2.18

allows per match

Nürnberg U19
1.77
Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.36

finishing

Nürnberg U19+0.00on par
Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg U19 ↓

Bayer Leverkusen U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Nürnberg U19 or draw
59%
Nürnberg U19 or Bayer Leverkusen U19
79%
Draw or Bayer Leverkusen U19
62%

Winning margin

Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+
20%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Nürnberg U19 1+ goals
85%
Nürnberg U19 2+ goals
57%
Nürnberg U19 3+ goals
30%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals
86%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals
59%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)
48%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg U19 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 1.77 · 70 matches

Bayer Leverkusen U19 away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.36 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg U19 attack 2.46 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.91

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.18 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nürnberg U19 scores more
38%
level
21%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more
41%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Nürnberg
Bayer
M. These
Manager: M. These
Kevin Brok
Manager: Kevin Brok

U19 Bundesliga: Nürnberg U19 1–3 Bayer Leverkusen U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 beat Nürnberg U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on April 11, 2026.