Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bayer Leverkusen U19 vs Nürnberg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Bayer Leverkusen U19
Bayer Leverkusen U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nürnberg U19
Nürnberg U19
2/21/2026U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Bayer Leverkusen U1951%
×Draw21%
Nürnberg U1928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bayer Leverkusen U19
2.20
Nürnberg U19
1.60

Bayer Leverkusen U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 71 away

creates per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19
2.62
Nürnberg U19
1.94

allows per match

Bayer Leverkusen U19
1.26
Nürnberg U19
1.77

finishing

Bayer Leverkusen U19+0.00on par
Nürnberg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bayer Leverkusen U19 ↓

Nürnberg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Bayer Leverkusen U19 or draw
72%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 or Nürnberg U19
79%
Draw or Nürnberg U19
49%

Winning margin

Bayer Leverkusen U19 wins by 2+
31%
Nürnberg U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bayer Leverkusen U19 1+ goals
89%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 2+ goals
64%
Bayer Leverkusen U19 3+ goals
37%
Nürnberg U19 1+ goals
80%
Nürnberg U19 2+ goals
47%
Nürnberg U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Bayer Leverkusen U19 (draw refunded)
64%
Nürnberg U19 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at home — creates 2.62, concedes 1.26 · 69 matches

Nürnberg U19 away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.77 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bayer Leverkusen U19 attack 2.62 + Nürnberg U19 defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.20

Nürnberg U19 attack 1.94 + Bayer Leverkusen U19 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bayer Leverkusen U19 scores more
51%
level
21%
Nürnberg U19 scores more
28%

Bayer Leverkusen U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bayer Leverkusen U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Bayer
Nürnberg
Kevin Brok
Manager: Kevin Brok
M. These
Manager: M. These

U19 Bundesliga: Bayer Leverkusen U19 2–0 Nürnberg U19

Bayer Leverkusen U19 beat Nürnberg U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on February 21, 2026.