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Nürnberg II vs Memmingen — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Nürnberg II
Nürnberg II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Memmingen
Memmingen
11/5/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 19Max-Morlock-Platz im Sportpark Valznerweiher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Nürnberg II55%
×Draw22%
Memmingen23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nürnberg II
2.01
Memmingen
1.24

Nürnberg II creates 62% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 66 away

creates per match

Nürnberg II
2.26
Memmingen
1.24

allows per match

Nürnberg II
1.24
Memmingen
1.76

finishing

Nürnberg II+0.00on par
Memmingen+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg II ↓

Memmingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Nürnberg II or draw
77%
Nürnberg II or Memmingen
78%
Draw or Memmingen
45%

Winning margin

Nürnberg II wins by 2+
32%
Memmingen wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nürnberg II 1+ goals
87%
Nürnberg II 2+ goals
59%
Nürnberg II 3+ goals
32%
Memmingen 1+ goals
71%
Memmingen 2+ goals
35%
Memmingen 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg II (draw refunded)
70%
Memmingen (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

Memmingen away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.76 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg II attack 2.26 + Memmingen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.01

Memmingen attack 1.24 + Nürnberg II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nürnberg II scores more
55%
level
22%
Memmingen scores more
23%

Nürnberg II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nürnberg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nürnberg II vs Memmingen

Nürnberg II beat Memmingen 2-1 in Regionalliga - Bayern on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Max-Morlock-Platz im Sportpark Valznerweiher in Nürnberg.