Memmingen 1–0 Nürnberg II: Result & Stats

Memmingen

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nürnberg II

5/14/2022

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 37Memminger Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Memmingen26%

×Draw23%

Nürnberg II50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MemmingenExpected goals in this matchNürnberg II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.79

Memmingen

1.23

Nürnberg II

1.79

Nürnberg II creates 46% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 86 away

1.03

creates per match

1.76

1.83

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Memmingen

1.03

Nürnberg II

1.76

allows per match

Memmingen

1.83

Nürnberg II

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Memmingen+0.00on par

Nürnberg II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Memmingen ↓

Nürnberg II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Memmingen or draw

50%

Memmingen or Nürnberg II

77%

Draw or Nürnberg II

74%

Winning margin

Memmingen wins by 2+

11%

Nürnberg II wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Memmingen 1+ goals

71%

Memmingen 2+ goals

35%

Memmingen 3+ goals

13%

Nürnberg II 1+ goals

83%

Nürnberg II 2+ goals

53%

Nürnberg II 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Memmingen (draw refunded)

34%

Nürnberg II (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Memmingen at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.83 · 64 matches

Nürnberg II away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Memmingen attack 1.03 + Nürnberg II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.23

Nürnberg II attack 1.76 + Memmingen defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Memmingen scores more

26%

level

23%

Nürnberg II scores more

50%

Nürnberg II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nürnberg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff