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Nürnberg II vs Illertissen — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Nürnberg II
Nürnberg II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Illertissen
Illertissen
4/26/2025Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 31Max-Morlock-Platz im Sportpark Valznerweiher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Nürnberg II50%
×Draw22%
Illertissen28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nürnberg II
1.92
Illertissen
1.38

Nürnberg II creates 39% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 96 away

creates per match

Nürnberg II
2.26
Illertissen
1.52

allows per match

Nürnberg II
1.24
Illertissen
1.59

finishing

Nürnberg II+0.00on par
Illertissen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg II ↓

Illertissen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Nürnberg II or draw
72%
Nürnberg II or Illertissen
78%
Draw or Illertissen
50%

Winning margin

Nürnberg II wins by 2+
28%
Illertissen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Nürnberg II 1+ goals
85%
Nürnberg II 2+ goals
57%
Nürnberg II 3+ goals
30%
Illertissen 1+ goals
75%
Illertissen 2+ goals
40%
Illertissen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg II (draw refunded)
64%
Illertissen (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

Illertissen away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.59 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg II attack 2.26 + Illertissen defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.92

Illertissen attack 1.52 + Nürnberg II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nürnberg II scores more
50%
level
22%
Illertissen scores more
28%

Nürnberg II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nürnberg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Bayern: Nürnberg II 2–0 Illertissen

Nürnberg II beat Illertissen 2-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Max-Morlock-Platz im Sportpark Valznerweiher in Nürnberg.