Illertissen 1–1 Nürnberg II: Result & Stats

Illertissen

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nürnberg II

4/10/2026

Regionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 28Vöhlin-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Illertissen39%

×Draw24%

Nürnberg II37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IllertissenExpected goals in this matchNürnberg II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.54

Illertissen

1.58

Nürnberg II

1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 86 away

1.73

creates per match

1.76

1.33

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Illertissen

1.73

Nürnberg II

1.76

allows per match

Illertissen

1.33

Nürnberg II

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Illertissen+0.00on par

Nürnberg II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Illertissen ↓

Nürnberg II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Illertissen or draw

63%

Illertissen or Nürnberg II

76%

Draw or Nürnberg II

61%

Winning margin

Illertissen wins by 2+

19%

Nürnberg II wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Illertissen 1+ goals

79%

Illertissen 2+ goals

47%

Illertissen 3+ goals

21%

Nürnberg II 1+ goals

79%

Nürnberg II 2+ goals

45%

Nürnberg II 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Illertissen (draw refunded)

51%

Nürnberg II (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Illertissen at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.33 · 98 matches

Nürnberg II away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Illertissen attack 1.73 + Nürnberg II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.58

Nürnberg II attack 1.76 + Illertissen defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Illertissen scores more

39%

level

24%

Nürnberg II scores more

37%

Illertissen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Illertissen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff