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Nürnberg II vs Ansbach — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Nürnberg II
Nürnberg II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ansbach
Ansbach
8/29/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 7Max-Morlock-Platz im Sportpark Valznerweiher

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Nürnberg II62%
×Draw19%
Ansbach19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nürnberg II
2.38
Ansbach
1.25

Nürnberg II creates 90% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 57 away

creates per match

Nürnberg II
2.26
Ansbach
1.25

allows per match

Nürnberg II
1.24
Ansbach
2.49

finishing

Nürnberg II+0.00on par
Ansbach+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nürnberg II ↓

Ansbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Nürnberg II or draw
81%
Nürnberg II or Ansbach
81%
Draw or Ansbach
38%

Winning margin

Nürnberg II wins by 2+
40%
Ansbach wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Nürnberg II 1+ goals
91%
Nürnberg II 2+ goals
68%
Nürnberg II 3+ goals
42%
Ansbach 1+ goals
71%
Ansbach 2+ goals
36%
Ansbach 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Nürnberg II (draw refunded)
77%
Ansbach (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nürnberg II at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

Ansbach away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.49 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nürnberg II attack 2.26 + Ansbach defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 2.38

Ansbach attack 1.25 + Nürnberg II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Nürnberg II scores more
62%
level
19%
Ansbach scores more
19%

Nürnberg II at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Nürnberg II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nürnberg II vs Ansbach

Nürnberg II beat Ansbach 3-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on August 29, 2023.

The match was played at Max-Morlock-Platz im Sportpark Valznerweiher in Nürnberg.