Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ansbach vs Nürnberg II — Regionalliga - Bayern 2019

Ansbach
Ansbach
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nürnberg II
Nürnberg II
3/4/2023Regionalliga - BayernRegionalliga - Bayern · Bayern - 26Xaver-Bertsch-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Ansbach40%
×Draw24%
Nürnberg II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ansbach
1.58
Nürnberg II
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 86 away

creates per match

Ansbach
1.72
Nürnberg II
1.76

allows per match

Ansbach
1.23
Nürnberg II
1.44

finishing

Ansbach+0.00on par
Nürnberg II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ansbach ↓

Nürnberg II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ansbach or draw
64%
Ansbach or Nürnberg II
76%
Draw or Nürnberg II
60%

Winning margin

Ansbach wins by 2+
20%
Nürnberg II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Ansbach 1+ goals
79%
Ansbach 2+ goals
47%
Ansbach 3+ goals
21%
Nürnberg II 1+ goals
78%
Nürnberg II 2+ goals
44%
Nürnberg II 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Ansbach (draw refunded)
52%
Nürnberg II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ansbach at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.23 · 57 matches

Nürnberg II away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.44 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ansbach attack 1.72 + Nürnberg II defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.58

Nürnberg II attack 1.76 + Ansbach defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ansbach scores more
40%
level
24%
Nürnberg II scores more
36%

Ansbach at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ansbach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ansbach vs Nürnberg II

Nürnberg II beat Ansbach 1-0 in Regionalliga - Bayern on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Xaver-Bertsch-Sportpark in Ansbach.