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Nur-Batken vs Abdish-Ata — Premier League 2019

Nur-Batken
Nur-Batken
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Abdish-Ata
Abdish-Ata
10/20/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Tsentral'nyy Stadion Kant

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nur-Batken32%
×Draw26%
Abdish-Ata43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nur-Batken
1.23
Abdish-Ata
1.47

Abdish-Ata creates 20% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 94 away

creates per match

Nur-Batken
1.20
Abdish-Ata
1.94

allows per match

Nur-Batken
1.00
Abdish-Ata
1.26

finishing

Nur-Batken+0.00on par
Abdish-Ata+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nur-Batken ↓

Abdish-Ata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nur-Batken or draw
57%
Nur-Batken or Abdish-Ata
74%
Draw or Abdish-Ata
68%

Winning margin

Nur-Batken wins by 2+
13%
Abdish-Ata wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Nur-Batken 1+ goals
71%
Nur-Batken 2+ goals
35%
Nur-Batken 3+ goals
13%
Abdish-Ata 1+ goals
77%
Abdish-Ata 2+ goals
43%
Abdish-Ata 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Nur-Batken (draw refunded)
43%
Abdish-Ata (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nur-Batken at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

Abdish-Ata away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.26 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nur-Batken attack 1.20 + Abdish-Ata defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Abdish-Ata attack 1.94 + Nur-Batken defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Nur-Batken scores more
32%
level
26%
Abdish-Ata scores more
43%

Abdish-Ata at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Abdish-Ata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Nur-Batken 0–3 Abdish-Ata

Abdish-Ata beat Nur-Batken 3-0 in Premier League on October 20, 2022.

The match was played at Tsentral'nyy Stadion Kant in Kant.