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Abdish-Ata vs Nur-Batken — Premier League 2019

Abdish-Ata
Abdish-Ata
FT
3 – 0
Nur-Batken
Nur-Batken
8/8/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 15Stadion Sportkompleks Abdysh-Ata

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Abdish-Ata58%
×Draw22%
Nur-Batken20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abdish-Ata
1.94
Nur-Batken
1.05

Abdish-Ata creates 85% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 13 away

creates per match

Abdish-Ata
1.96
Nur-Batken
1.15

allows per match

Abdish-Ata
0.95
Nur-Batken
1.92

finishing

Abdish-Ata+0.00on par
Nur-Batken+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abdish-Ata ↓

Nur-Batken →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Abdish-Ata or draw
80%
Abdish-Ata or Nur-Batken
78%
Draw or Nur-Batken
42%

Winning margin

Abdish-Ata wins by 2+
34%
Nur-Batken wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Abdish-Ata 1+ goals
86%
Abdish-Ata 2+ goals
58%
Abdish-Ata 3+ goals
30%
Nur-Batken 1+ goals
65%
Nur-Batken 2+ goals
28%
Nur-Batken 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Abdish-Ata (draw refunded)
74%
Nur-Batken (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abdish-Ata at home — creates 1.96, concedes 0.95 · 98 matches

Nur-Batken away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abdish-Ata attack 1.96 + Nur-Batken defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.94

Nur-Batken attack 1.15 + Abdish-Ata defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Abdish-Ata scores more
58%
level
22%
Nur-Batken scores more
20%

Abdish-Ata at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Abdish-Ata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Abdish-Ata 3–0 Nur-Batken

Abdish-Ata beat Nur-Batken 3-0 in Premier League on August 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Sportkompleks Abdysh-Ata in Kant.