Nuova Cosenza 1–1 Lecce: Result & Stats | Serie B

Nuova Cosenza

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Lecce

E. Gliozzi 56'

M. Coda 12'

10/25/2020

Serie B · Round 5Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Nuova Cosenza33%

×Draw28%

Lecce39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nuova CosenzaExpected goals in this matchLecce

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.25

Nuova Cosenza

1.12

Lecce

1.25

Lecce creates 12% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 57 away

1.06

creates per match

1.44

1.07

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Nuova Cosenza

1.06

Lecce

1.44

allows per match

Nuova Cosenza

1.07

Lecce

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nuova Cosenza+0.00on par

Lecce+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nuova Cosenza ↓

Lecce →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nuova Cosenza or draw

61%

Nuova Cosenza or Lecce

72%

Draw or Lecce

67%

Winning margin

Nuova Cosenza wins by 2+

13%

Lecce wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Nuova Cosenza 1+ goals

67%

Nuova Cosenza 2+ goals

31%

Nuova Cosenza 3+ goals

10%

Lecce 1+ goals

71%

Lecce 2+ goals

36%

Lecce 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Nuova Cosenza (draw refunded)

46%

Lecce (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nuova Cosenza at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.07 · 134 matches

Lecce away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.18 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nuova Cosenza attack 1.06 + Lecce defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.12

Lecce attack 1.44 + Nuova Cosenza defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nuova Cosenza scores more

33%

level

28%

Lecce scores more

39%

Lecce at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lecce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

W. Falcone

Nuova Cosenza · G

8.3

Match Events

10'

B. Meccariello← K. Dermaku

12'

M. Coda

29'

A. Corsi← B. Vera

56'

E. Gliozzi

59'

M. Mancosu← Ž. Majer

64'

M. Bruccini← D. Sciaudone

64'

M. Bahlouli← M. Carretta

65'

Ben Lhassine Kone

77'

G. Sueva← E. Gliozzi

77'

D. Petrucci← B. Kone

81'

S. Pettinari← M. Stępiński

82'

Luca Bittante

87'

Mirko Bruccini

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NuovaLecce

Overview

48%Possession52%

20Total Shots27

5Corners8

11Fouls16

Shots

20Total Shots27

9On Target7

9Off Target8

2Blocked12

13Inside Box16

7Outside Box11

Passing

48%Possession52%

433Total Passes472

344Accurate Passes378

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

6Saves8

Discipline

11Fouls16

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides6