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Lecce vs Cosenza — Serie B 2018

Lecce
Lecce
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cosenza
Cosenza
4/3/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 31Via del Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Lecce56%
×Draw24%
Cosenza21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecce
1.75
Cosenza
0.96

Lecce creates 82% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 134 away

creates per match

Lecce
1.96
Cosenza
0.90

allows per match

Lecce
1.02
Cosenza
1.54

finishing

Lecce+0.00on par
Cosenza+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce ↓

Cosenza →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lecce or draw
79%
Lecce or Cosenza
76%
Draw or Cosenza
44%

Winning margin

Lecce wins by 2+
31%
Cosenza wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lecce 1+ goals
83%
Lecce 2+ goals
52%
Lecce 3+ goals
25%
Cosenza 1+ goals
62%
Cosenza 2+ goals
25%
Cosenza 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lecce (draw refunded)
73%
Cosenza (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

Cosenza away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.54 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce attack 1.96 + Cosenza defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.75

Cosenza attack 0.90 + Lecce defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Lecce scores more
56%
level
24%
Cosenza scores more
21%

Lecce at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Lecce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lecce vs Cosenza

Lecce beat Cosenza 3-1 in Serie B on April 3, 2019.

The match was played at Via del Mare in Lecce.