Numancia 2–0 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Numancia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Mirandes

Carlos Gutiérrez 87'

Higinio Marín 75'

8/31/2019

Segunda División · Round 3Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Numancia48%

×Draw28%

Mirandes25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NumanciaExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.89

Numancia

1.36

Mirandes

0.89

Numancia creates 53% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 149 away

1.24

creates per match

1.00

0.78

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Numancia

1.24

Mirandes

1.00

allows per match

Numancia

0.78

Mirandes

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par

Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Numancia or draw

75%

Numancia or Mirandes

72%

Draw or Mirandes

52%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+

23%

Mirandes wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals

74%

Numancia 2+ goals

39%

Numancia 3+ goals

16%

Mirandes 1+ goals

59%

Mirandes 2+ goals

22%

Mirandes 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)

66%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.78 · 49 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 1.24 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.36

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Numancia defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Numancia scores more

48%

level

28%

Mirandes scores more

25%

Numancia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Marc Mateu

Numancia · M

7.9

Match Events

25'

Antonio Otegui

46'

Kijera← Enric Franquesa

63'

Nacho← Alain Oyarzun

64'

Maranhão← Mario Barco

71'

Alberto Escassi

75'

Higinio Marín↳ Marc Mateu

79'

Kako Sanz← Otegui

81'

E. Ohemeng← A. González

85'

Curro Sánchez← Marc Mateu

87'

Carlos Gutiérrez↳ Curro Sánchez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NumanciaMirandes

Overview

53%Possession47%

16Total Shots10

6Corners1

15Fouls13

Shots

16Total Shots10

5On Target2

9Off Target5

2Blocked3

8Inside Box6

8Outside Box4

Passing

53%Possession47%

399Total Passes357

331Accurate Passes289

83%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls13

2Yellow Cards0

4Offsides0