Mirandes 2–1 Numancia: Result & Stats

Mirandes

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Numancia

Martín Merquelanz 51' (pen)

Maranhão 29'

Alberto Escassi 83'

6/14/2020

Segunda División · Round 32Estadio Municipal de Anduva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Mirandes49%

×Draw26%

Numancia25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MirandesExpected goals in this matchNumancia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.98

Mirandes

1.50

Numancia

0.98

Mirandes creates 53% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 50 away

1.42

creates per match

0.84

1.11

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Mirandes

1.42

Numancia

0.84

allows per match

Mirandes

1.11

Numancia

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mirandes+0.00on par

Numancia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mirandes ↓

Numancia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mirandes or draw

75%

Mirandes or Numancia

74%

Draw or Numancia

51%

Winning margin

Mirandes wins by 2+

25%

Numancia wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mirandes 1+ goals

78%

Mirandes 2+ goals

44%

Mirandes 3+ goals

19%

Numancia 1+ goals

62%

Numancia 2+ goals

26%

Numancia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mirandes (draw refunded)

67%

Numancia (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mirandes at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.11 · 150 matches

Numancia away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.58 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mirandes attack 1.42 + Numancia defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Numancia attack 0.84 + Mirandes defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mirandes scores more

49%

level

26%

Numancia scores more

25%

Mirandes at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mirandes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

Marc Mateu

Numancia · M

7.7

Match Events

25'

J. Guridi

29'

Maranhão↳ Iñigo Vicente

41'

Bernardo

46'

Otegui← Bernardo Cruz

51'

Martín MerquelanzPenalty

54'

Álex Sola← M. Sanhaji

62'

M. Malsa

66'

Álvaro Peña← Álvaro Rey

67'

Antonio Sánchez← Iñigo Vicente

67'

Alberto Noguera← Héctor Hernández

69'

Gustavo

79'

Adrián Castellano← Iván Calero

79'

Néstor Albiach← Luís Gustavo

82'

Mario Barco← Maranhão

83'

Alberto Escassi↳ Marc Mateu

90+5'

L. Crisetig

90+1'

L. Crisetig← Martín Merquelanz

90'

A. González← C. Martínez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MirandesNumancia

Overview

34%Possession66%

8Total Shots12

3Corners3

14Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots12

5On Target2

3Off Target7

0Blocked3

3Inside Box5

5Outside Box7

Passing

34%Possession66%

273Total Passes497

179Accurate Passes403

66%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls15

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1