Numancia vs Marino de Luanco — League #875 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 10+ matches
Numancia46%
Marino de Luanco27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Numancia creates 40% more chances
Season form · 10 home / 19 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Numancia ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Numancia at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches
Marino de Luanco away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Numancia attack 1.60 + Marino de Luanco defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.41
Marino de Luanco attack 1.32 + Numancia defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.01
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Numancia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Numancia substitutes
Real Valladolid II
Real Oviedo IINumancia
Salamanca UDSMarino de Luanco
Coruxo
Gimnástica Segoviana
Bergantiños
UD Ourense
Racing Santander II
Sámano
Lealtad
Deportivo La Coruña II
Langreo
Atlético Astorga
Burgos Promesas
Real Ávila
SarrianaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Numancia host Marino de Luanco on Saturday, 26 October 2024 at 15:00. The match is part of the League #875 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Numancia vs Marino de Luanco
Numancia beat Marino de Luanco 1-0 in League #875 on October 26, 2024.
Goals: Javi Bonilla (27' pen).
The match was played at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos in Soria.