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Marino de Luanco vs Numancia — League #875 2026

Marino de Luanco
Marino de Luanco
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Numancia
Numancia
D. Diaz 56'
Jony 14', 6'
10/25/2025League #875League #875 · Group 1 - 8Estadi Municipal de Miramar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Marino de Luanco38%
×Draw35%
Numancia27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marino de Luanco
0.90
Numancia
0.71

Marino de Luanco creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 10 away

creates per match

Marino de Luanco
1.00
Numancia
1.00

allows per match

Marino de Luanco
0.42
Numancia
0.80

finishing

Marino de Luanco+0.00on par
Numancia+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marino de Luanco ↓

Numancia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Marino de Luanco or draw
73%
Marino de Luanco or Numancia
65%
Draw or Numancia
62%

Winning margin

Marino de Luanco wins by 2+
14%
Numancia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Marino de Luanco 1+ goals
59%
Marino de Luanco 2+ goals
23%
Marino de Luanco 3+ goals
6%
Numancia 1+ goals
51%
Numancia 2+ goals
16%
Numancia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)
58%
Numancia (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marino de Luanco at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.42 · 19 matches

Numancia away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marino de Luanco attack 1.00 + Numancia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Numancia attack 1.00 + Marino de Luanco defence 0.42 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Marino de Luanco scores more
38%
level
35%
Numancia scores more
27%

Marino de Luanco at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Marino de Luanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
Jony
14'
Jony
56'
D. Diaz

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #875: Marino de Luanco 1–2 Numancia

Numancia beat Marino de Luanco 2-1 in League #875 on October 25, 2025.

Goals: Jony (6', 14'), D. Diaz (56').

The match was played at Estadi Municipal de Miramar in Luanco.