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Numancia vs Marino de Luanco — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Numancia
Numancia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Marino de Luanco
Marino de Luanco
10/18/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Numancia64%
×Draw22%
Marino de Luanco14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Numancia
1.84
Marino de Luanco
0.72

Numancia creates 156% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 26 away

creates per match

Numancia
2.00
Marino de Luanco
0.69

allows per match

Numancia
0.75
Marino de Luanco
1.69

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par
Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Marino de Luanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Numancia or draw
86%
Numancia or Marino de Luanco
78%
Draw or Marino de Luanco
36%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+
38%
Marino de Luanco wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals
84%
Numancia 2+ goals
55%
Numancia 3+ goals
28%
Marino de Luanco 1+ goals
51%
Marino de Luanco 2+ goals
16%
Marino de Luanco 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)
82%
Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

Marino de Luanco away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.69 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 2.00 + Marino de Luanco defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.84

Marino de Luanco attack 0.69 + Numancia defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Numancia scores more
64%
level
22%
Marino de Luanco scores more
14%

Numancia at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Numancia vs Marino de Luanco

Numancia beat Marino de Luanco 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos in Soria.