Numancia 0–1 Intercity: Result & Stats

Numancia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Intercity

I. Kecojević 63'

8/28/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Numancia41%

×Draw29%

Intercity30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NumanciaExpected goals in this matchIntercity

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.96

Numancia

1.18

Intercity

0.96

Numancia creates 23% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 57 away

1.00

creates per match

0.91

1.00

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Numancia

1.00

Intercity

0.91

allows per match

Numancia

1.00

Intercity

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par

Intercity+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Intercity →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Numancia or draw

70%

Numancia or Intercity

71%

Draw or Intercity

59%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+

18%

Intercity wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals

69%

Numancia 2+ goals

33%

Numancia 3+ goals

12%

Intercity 1+ goals

62%

Intercity 2+ goals

25%

Intercity 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)

58%

Intercity (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Intercity away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.35 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 1.00 + Intercity defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Intercity attack 0.91 + Numancia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Numancia scores more

41%

level

29%

Intercity scores more

30%

Numancia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

I. Kecojevic

42'

Arthur

63'

Amorrortu← Adrián Mance

63'

Jesús Carrillo← M. Sanhaji

63'

I. Kecojević

71'

Oriol Soldevila← Cristian Herrera

72'

Dani Sánchez← Jaume Pol

72'

Jordi Tur← Arthur

72'

Julián Mahicas← David González

77'

Xemi← Jon Etxaniz

84'

E. Nsue

88'

Carlos Carmona← Miguel Marí

88'

M. Bellotti← Pol Roigé

Numancia

Intercity

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Diego Martínez

63'▲Amorrortu←▼Adrián Mance

63'▲Jesús Carrillo←▼M. Sanhaji

72'▲Dani Sánchez←▼Jaume Pol

72'▲Jordi Tur←▼Arthur

72'▲Julián Mahicas←▼David González

Numancia substitutes

AmorrortuCarrilloSánchezTurMahicasBarcoArranzVicarioRománAyesa

Manager: G. Siviero

71'▲Oriol Soldevila←▼Cristian Herrera

77'▲Xemi←▼Jon Etxaniz

88'▲Carlos Carmona←▼Miguel Marí

88'▲M. Bellotti←▼Pol Roigé

Intercity substitutes

SoldevilaXemiCarmonaBellottiBenjaKoffiCamposJaimeLaguna

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Numancia 0–1 Intercity

Intercity beat Numancia 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on August 28, 2022.

Goals: I. Kecojević (63').

The match was played at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos in Soria.

Numancia vs Intercity — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Numancia 0–1 Intercity