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Intercity vs Numancia — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Intercity
Intercity
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Numancia
Numancia
4/22/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Ciudad Deportiva Antonio Solana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Intercity37%
×Draw31%
Numancia31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Intercity
1.03
Numancia
0.92

Intercity creates 12% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 19 away

creates per match

Intercity
1.18
Numancia
0.63

allows per match

Intercity
1.21
Numancia
0.89

finishing

Intercity+0.00on par
Numancia+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Intercity ↓

Numancia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Intercity or draw
69%
Intercity or Numancia
69%
Draw or Numancia
63%

Winning margin

Intercity wins by 2+
14%
Numancia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Intercity 1+ goals
64%
Intercity 2+ goals
28%
Intercity 3+ goals
9%
Numancia 1+ goals
60%
Numancia 2+ goals
23%
Numancia 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Intercity (draw refunded)
54%
Numancia (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Intercity at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 57 matches

Numancia away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Intercity attack 1.18 + Numancia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Numancia attack 0.63 + Intercity defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Intercity scores more
37%
level
31%
Numancia scores more
31%

Intercity at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Intercity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Intercity 1–1 Numancia

Intercity and Numancia drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 22, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Antonio Solana in Alicante.