Numancia 0–1 Getafe II: Result & Stats

Numancia

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Getafe II

5/18/2025

Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundNuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Numancia39%

×Draw31%

Getafe II30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NumanciaExpected goals in this matchGetafe II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.90

Numancia

1.06

Getafe II

0.90

Numancia creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

0.80

creates per match

1.00

0.80

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Numancia

0.80

Getafe II

1.00

allows per match

Numancia

0.80

Getafe II

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par

Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Getafe II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Numancia or draw

70%

Numancia or Getafe II

69%

Draw or Getafe II

61%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+

15%

Getafe II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals

65%

Numancia 2+ goals

29%

Numancia 3+ goals

9%

Getafe II 1+ goals

59%

Getafe II 2+ goals

23%

Getafe II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)

56%

Getafe II (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Getafe II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 0.80 + Getafe II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Getafe II attack 1.00 + Numancia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Numancia scores more

39%

level

31%

Getafe II scores more

30%

Numancia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff