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Getafe II vs Numancia — Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs 2022

Getafe II
Getafe II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Numancia
Numancia
5/11/2025Segunda División RFEF - Play-offsSegunda División RFEF - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundCiudad Deportiva Fernando Santos de la Parra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Getafe II14%
×Draw29%
Numancia56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Getafe II
0.50
Numancia
1.29

Numancia creates 158% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Getafe II
0.00
Numancia
1.25

allows per match

Getafe II
1.33
Numancia
1.00

finishing

Getafe II+0.00on par
Numancia+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Getafe II ↓

Numancia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–122%
0–214%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Getafe II or draw
44%
Getafe II or Numancia
71%
Draw or Numancia
86%

Winning margin

Getafe II wins by 2+
3%
Numancia wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Getafe II 1+ goals
39%
Getafe II 2+ goals
9%
Getafe II 3+ goals
1%
Numancia 1+ goals
72%
Numancia 2+ goals
37%
Numancia 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Getafe II (draw refunded)
20%
Numancia (draw refunded)
80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Getafe II at home — creates 0.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Numancia away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Getafe II attack 0.00 + Numancia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Numancia attack 1.25 + Getafe II defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Getafe II scores more
14%
level
29%
Numancia scores more
56%

Numancia at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs: Getafe II 0–2 Numancia

Numancia beat Getafe II 2-0 in Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs on May 11, 2025.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Fernando Santos de la Parra in Getafe.