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Numancia vs Extremadura — Segunda División 2018

Numancia
Numancia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Extremadura
Extremadura
10/6/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 8Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Numancia45%
×Draw28%
Extremadura27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Numancia
1.30
Extremadura
0.95

Numancia creates 37% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

creates per match

Numancia
1.29
Extremadura
1.07

allows per match

Numancia
0.83
Extremadura
1.31

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par
Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Extremadura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Numancia or draw
73%
Numancia or Extremadura
72%
Draw or Extremadura
55%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+
20%
Extremadura wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals
73%
Numancia 2+ goals
37%
Numancia 3+ goals
14%
Extremadura 1+ goals
61%
Extremadura 2+ goals
25%
Extremadura 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)
62%
Extremadura (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.83 · 42 matches

Extremadura away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 1.29 + Extremadura defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.30

Extremadura attack 1.07 + Numancia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Numancia scores more
45%
level
28%
Extremadura scores more
27%

Numancia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Numancia 1–0 Extremadura

Numancia beat Extremadura 1-0 in Segunda División on October 6, 2018.

The match was played at Los Pajaritos in Soria.