Extremadura 0–1 Numancia: Result & Stats

Extremadura

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Numancia

2/24/2019

Segunda División · Round 27Estadio Francisco de la Hera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Extremadura43%

×Draw28%

Numancia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ExtremaduraExpected goals in this matchNumancia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

1.02

Extremadura

1.30

Numancia

1.02

Extremadura creates 27% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

0.98

creates per match

0.83

1.21

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Extremadura

0.98

Numancia

0.83

allows per match

Extremadura

1.21

Numancia

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Extremadura+0.00on par

Numancia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Extremadura ↓

Numancia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Extremadura or draw

71%

Extremadura or Numancia

72%

Draw or Numancia

57%

Winning margin

Extremadura wins by 2+

20%

Numancia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Extremadura 1+ goals

73%

Extremadura 2+ goals

37%

Extremadura 3+ goals

14%

Numancia 1+ goals

64%

Numancia 2+ goals

27%

Numancia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Extremadura (draw refunded)

60%

Numancia (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Extremadura at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.21 · 42 matches

Numancia away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.62 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Extremadura attack 0.98 + Numancia defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.30

Numancia attack 0.83 + Extremadura defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Extremadura scores more

43%

level

28%

Numancia scores more

29%

Extremadura at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Extremadura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff