Numancia 1–0 Barcelona B: Result & Stats

Numancia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Barcelona B

Guillermo Fernández 82' (pen)

10/11/2017

Segunda División · Round 9Los Pajaritos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Numancia41%

×Draw30%

Barcelona B29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NumanciaExpected goals in this matchBarcelona B

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.90

Numancia

1.14

Barcelona B

0.90

Numancia creates 27% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 3 away

1.27

creates per match

1.00

0.79

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Numancia

1.27

Barcelona B

1.00

allows per match

Numancia

0.79

Barcelona B

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Numancia+0.00on par

Barcelona B+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia ↓

Barcelona B →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Numancia or draw

71%

Numancia or Barcelona B

70%

Draw or Barcelona B

59%

Winning margin

Numancia wins by 2+

17%

Barcelona B wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Numancia 1+ goals

68%

Numancia 2+ goals

32%

Numancia 3+ goals

11%

Barcelona B 1+ goals

59%

Barcelona B 2+ goals

23%

Barcelona B 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Numancia (draw refunded)

59%

Barcelona B (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.79 · 48 matches

Barcelona B away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia attack 1.27 + Barcelona B defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Barcelona B attack 1.00 + Numancia defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Numancia scores more

41%

level

30%

Barcelona B scores more

29%

Numancia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Numancia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Guillermo Fernández

Numancia · F

7.6

Match Events

18'

Unai Elguezabal

46'

Ferrán Sarsanedas← Fali Jiménez

46'

David Concha← Vitinho

50'

Unai Medina

50'

Alberto Escassi

52'

Markel Etxeberría← Unai Medina

53'

Ferran Sarsanedas

59'

Pablo Valcarce

62'

A. Lozano← Marc Cardona

71'

Guillermo Fernández← Manu del Moral

71'

Pablo Larrea← Grego Sierra

77'

Adrian Ripa

81'

Anthony Lozano

82'

Carles Aleñá

82'

Guillermo FernándezPenalty

84'

Marc Cucurella

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NumanciaBarcelona

Overview

38%Possession62%

19Total Shots9

8Corners4

15Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots9

6On Target3

5Off Target3

8Blocked3

15Inside Box3

4Outside Box6

Passing

38%Possession62%

319Total Passes537

233Accurate Passes456

73%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

Discipline

15Fouls12

5Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0