Barcelona B 1–2 Numancia: Result & Stats

Barcelona B

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Numancia

Victor Barberá 85'

Arthur 10'

Rubén Mesa 8' (pen)

11/26/2022

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 13Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Barcelona B47%

×Draw29%

Numancia23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona BExpected goals in this matchNumancia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.80

Barcelona B

1.27

Numancia

0.80

Barcelona B creates 59% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 19 away

1.66

creates per match

0.63

0.97

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

Barcelona B

1.66

Numancia

0.63

allows per match

Barcelona B

0.97

Numancia

0.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona B+0.00on par

Numancia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona B ↓

Numancia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Barcelona B or draw

77%

Barcelona B or Numancia

71%

Draw or Numancia

53%

Winning margin

Barcelona B wins by 2+

22%

Numancia wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Barcelona B 1+ goals

72%

Barcelona B 2+ goals

36%

Barcelona B 3+ goals

14%

Numancia 1+ goals

55%

Numancia 2+ goals

19%

Numancia 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Barcelona B (draw refunded)

67%

Numancia (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona B at home — creates 1.66, concedes 0.97 · 38 matches

Numancia away — creates 0.63, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona B attack 1.66 + Numancia defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.27

Numancia attack 0.63 + Barcelona B defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Barcelona B scores more

47%

level

29%

Numancia scores more

23%

Barcelona B at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Barcelona B will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

C. Riad

8'

Rubén MesaPenalty

10'

Arthur

40'

G. Perez

41'

A. Nunez

58'

M. Sanhaji← David González

71'

Fabio Blanco← J. Fuentes

71'

Luismi Cruz← Antonio Aranda

72'

Arthur

77'

Toni Arranz

82'

Jorge Valín← Adrián Mance

82'

Mario Barco← Rubén Mesa

85'

Victor Barberá

90+3'

Borja

Barcelona

Numancia

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: R. Márquez

71'▲Fabio Blanco←▼J. Fuentes

71'▲Luismi Cruz←▼Antonio Aranda

Barcelona B substitutes

BlancoCruzDionkouCarbonellZalayaDemirRuizVegaFernándezRosanas

Manager: Iñaki Bea

58'▲M. Sanhaji←▼David González

82'▲Jorge Valín←▼Adrián Mance

82'▲Mario Barco←▼Rubén Mesa

Numancia substitutes

SanhajiValínBarcoCotánGilCarrilloMahicasVicario