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Numancia II vs La Granja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Numancia II
Numancia II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
La Granja
La Granja
12/27/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2Ciudad Deportiva Francisco Rubio Garcés

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Numancia II58%
×Draw23%
La Granja19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Numancia II
1.86
La Granja
0.97

Numancia II creates 92% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 31 away

creates per match

Numancia II
1.53
La Granja
0.68

allows per match

Numancia II
1.25
La Granja
2.19

finishing

Numancia II+0.00on par
La Granja+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia II ↓

La Granja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Numancia II or draw
81%
Numancia II or La Granja
77%
Draw or La Granja
42%

Winning margin

Numancia II wins by 2+
34%
La Granja wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Numancia II 1+ goals
84%
Numancia II 2+ goals
55%
Numancia II 3+ goals
28%
La Granja 1+ goals
62%
La Granja 2+ goals
25%
La Granja 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Numancia II (draw refunded)
75%
La Granja (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.25 · 76 matches

La Granja away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia II attack 1.53 + La Granja defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.86

La Granja attack 0.68 + Numancia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Numancia II scores more
58%
level
23%
La Granja scores more
19%

Numancia II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Numancia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Numancia II vs La Granja

Numancia II beat La Granja 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on December 27, 2020.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Francisco Rubio Garcés in Soria.