La Granja 0–1 Numancia II: Result & Stats

La Granja

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Numancia II

1/20/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 13Campo de Fútbol El Hospital

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

La Granja43%

×Draw27%

Numancia II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

La GranjaExpected goals in this matchNumancia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.14

La Granja

1.39

Numancia II

1.14

La Granja creates 22% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 76 away

1.20

creates per match

0.95

1.33

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

La Granja

1.20

Numancia II

0.95

allows per match

La Granja

1.33

Numancia II

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

La Granja+0.00on par

Numancia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

La Granja ↓

Numancia II →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

La Granja or draw

69%

La Granja or Numancia II

73%

Draw or Numancia II

57%

Winning margin

La Granja wins by 2+

20%

Numancia II wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

La Granja 1+ goals

75%

La Granja 2+ goals

40%

La Granja 3+ goals

16%

Numancia II 1+ goals

68%

Numancia II 2+ goals

32%

Numancia II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

La Granja (draw refunded)

58%

Numancia II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

La Granja at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.33 · 30 matches

Numancia II away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.58 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

La Granja attack 1.20 + Numancia II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.39

Numancia II attack 0.95 + La Granja defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

La Granja scores more

43%

level

27%

Numancia II scores more

31%

La Granja at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "La Granja will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff