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Numancia II vs Cristo Atlético — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Numancia II
Numancia II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cristo Atlético
Cristo Atlético
4/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2nd Phase - 4Ciudad Deportiva Francisco Rubio Garcés Campo 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Numancia II35%
×Draw27%
Cristo Atlético38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Numancia II
1.24
Cristo Atlético
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 80 away

creates per match

Numancia II
1.53
Cristo Atlético
1.36

allows per match

Numancia II
1.25
Cristo Atlético
0.95

finishing

Numancia II+0.00on par
Cristo Atlético+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia II ↓

Cristo Atlético →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Numancia II or draw
62%
Numancia II or Cristo Atlético
73%
Draw or Cristo Atlético
65%

Winning margin

Numancia II wins by 2+
15%
Cristo Atlético wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Numancia II 1+ goals
71%
Numancia II 2+ goals
35%
Numancia II 3+ goals
13%
Cristo Atlético 1+ goals
73%
Cristo Atlético 2+ goals
38%
Cristo Atlético 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Numancia II (draw refunded)
48%
Cristo Atlético (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.25 · 76 matches

Cristo Atlético away — creates 1.36, concedes 0.95 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia II attack 1.53 + Cristo Atlético defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.24

Cristo Atlético attack 1.36 + Numancia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Numancia II scores more
35%
level
27%
Cristo Atlético scores more
38%

Cristo Atlético at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cristo Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Numancia II 0–1 Cristo Atlético

Cristo Atlético beat Numancia II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 24, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Francisco Rubio Garcés Campo 3 in Soria.