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Cristo Atlético vs Numancia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Cristo Atlético
Cristo Atlético
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Numancia II
Numancia II
4/4/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio La Nueva Balastera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Cristo Atlético53%
×Draw26%
Numancia II21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cristo Atlético
1.48
Numancia II
0.82

Cristo Atlético creates 80% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 76 away

creates per match

Cristo Atlético
1.38
Numancia II
0.95

allows per match

Cristo Atlético
0.69
Numancia II
1.58

finishing

Cristo Atlético+0.00on par
Numancia II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cristo Atlético ↓

Numancia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cristo Atlético or draw
79%
Cristo Atlético or Numancia II
74%
Draw or Numancia II
47%

Winning margin

Cristo Atlético wins by 2+
27%
Numancia II wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Cristo Atlético 1+ goals
77%
Cristo Atlético 2+ goals
43%
Cristo Atlético 3+ goals
19%
Numancia II 1+ goals
56%
Numancia II 2+ goals
20%
Numancia II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Cristo Atlético (draw refunded)
72%
Numancia II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cristo Atlético at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.69 · 80 matches

Numancia II away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.58 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cristo Atlético attack 1.38 + Numancia II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Numancia II attack 0.95 + Cristo Atlético defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cristo Atlético scores more
53%
level
26%
Numancia II scores more
21%

Cristo Atlético at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cristo Atlético will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Cristo Atlético 2–0 Numancia II

Cristo Atlético beat Numancia II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio La Nueva Balastera in Palencia.