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Numancia II vs Ciudad Rodrigo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Numancia II
Numancia II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Ciudad Rodrigo
Ciudad Rodrigo
10/16/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 8Ciudad del Fútbol Francisco Rubio Garcés Campo 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Numancia II56%
×Draw23%
Ciudad Rodrigo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Numancia II
1.77
Ciudad Rodrigo
0.99

Numancia II creates 79% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 34 away

creates per match

Numancia II
1.53
Ciudad Rodrigo
0.74

allows per match

Numancia II
1.25
Ciudad Rodrigo
2.00

finishing

Numancia II+0.00on par
Ciudad Rodrigo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Numancia II ↓

Ciudad Rodrigo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Numancia II or draw
79%
Numancia II or Ciudad Rodrigo
77%
Draw or Ciudad Rodrigo
44%

Winning margin

Numancia II wins by 2+
31%
Ciudad Rodrigo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Numancia II 1+ goals
83%
Numancia II 2+ goals
53%
Numancia II 3+ goals
26%
Ciudad Rodrigo 1+ goals
63%
Ciudad Rodrigo 2+ goals
26%
Ciudad Rodrigo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Numancia II (draw refunded)
73%
Ciudad Rodrigo (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Numancia II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.25 · 76 matches

Ciudad Rodrigo away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Numancia II attack 1.53 + Ciudad Rodrigo defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ciudad Rodrigo attack 0.74 + Numancia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Numancia II scores more
56%
level
23%
Ciudad Rodrigo scores more
21%

Numancia II at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Numancia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Numancia II vs Ciudad Rodrigo

Numancia II beat Ciudad Rodrigo 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad del Fútbol Francisco Rubio Garcés Campo 2 in Soria.