Ciudad Rodrigo 1–3 Numancia II: Result & Stats

Ciudad Rodrigo

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Numancia II

2/26/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 25Estadio Municipal de Fútbol Francisco Mateos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ciudad Rodrigo40%

×Draw26%

Numancia II34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ciudad RodrigoExpected goals in this matchNumancia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.24

Ciudad Rodrigo

1.36

Numancia II

1.24

Ciudad Rodrigo creates 10% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 76 away

1.15

creates per match

0.95

1.53

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Ciudad Rodrigo

1.15

Numancia II

0.95

allows per match

Ciudad Rodrigo

1.53

Numancia II

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ciudad Rodrigo+0.00on par

Numancia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad Rodrigo ↓

Numancia II →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ciudad Rodrigo or draw

66%

Ciudad Rodrigo or Numancia II

74%

Draw or Numancia II

60%

Winning margin

Ciudad Rodrigo wins by 2+

18%

Numancia II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ciudad Rodrigo 1+ goals

74%

Ciudad Rodrigo 2+ goals

39%

Ciudad Rodrigo 3+ goals

16%

Numancia II 1+ goals

71%

Numancia II 2+ goals

35%

Numancia II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ciudad Rodrigo (draw refunded)

54%

Numancia II (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ciudad Rodrigo at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

Numancia II away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.58 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad Rodrigo attack 1.15 + Numancia II defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.36

Numancia II attack 0.95 + Ciudad Rodrigo defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ciudad Rodrigo scores more

40%

level

26%

Numancia II scores more

34%

Ciudad Rodrigo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ciudad Rodrigo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ciudad Rodrigo vs Numancia II

Numancia II beat Ciudad Rodrigo 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Fútbol Francisco Mateos in Salamanca.

Ciudad Rodrigo vs Numancia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ciudad Rodrigo vs Numancia II