Nueva Esparta 3–1 Libertador FC: Result & Stats

Nueva Esparta

FT

3 – 1

Libertador FC

4/23/2022

Segunda División · 1st Phase - 4Estadio Dynamo La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Nueva Esparta44%

×Draw29%

Libertador FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nueva EspartaExpected goals in this matchLibertador FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.88

Nueva Esparta

1.23

Libertador FC

0.88

Nueva Esparta creates 40% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 45 away

1.13

creates per match

0.73

1.03

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Nueva Esparta

1.13

Libertador FC

0.73

allows per match

Nueva Esparta

1.03

Libertador FC

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nueva Esparta+0.00on par

Libertador FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nueva Esparta ↓

Libertador FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Nueva Esparta or draw

74%

Nueva Esparta or Libertador FC

71%

Draw or Libertador FC

56%

Winning margin

Nueva Esparta wins by 2+

20%

Libertador FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nueva Esparta 1+ goals

71%

Nueva Esparta 2+ goals

35%

Nueva Esparta 3+ goals

13%

Libertador FC 1+ goals

59%

Libertador FC 2+ goals

22%

Libertador FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nueva Esparta (draw refunded)

63%

Libertador FC (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nueva Esparta at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Libertador FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nueva Esparta attack 1.13 + Libertador FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Libertador FC attack 0.73 + Nueva Esparta defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Nueva Esparta scores more

44%

level

29%

Libertador FC scores more

26%

Nueva Esparta at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Nueva Esparta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff