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Libertador FC vs Nueva Esparta — Segunda División 2018

Libertador FC
Libertador FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Nueva Esparta
Nueva Esparta
7/23/2022Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 1st Phase - 15Estadio Monumental de Maturín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Libertador FC48%
×Draw28%
Nueva Esparta25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Libertador FC
1.36
Nueva Esparta
0.89

Libertador FC creates 53% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 38 away

creates per match

Libertador FC
1.30
Nueva Esparta
0.58

allows per match

Libertador FC
1.19
Nueva Esparta
1.42

finishing

Libertador FC+0.00on par
Nueva Esparta+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Libertador FC ↓

Nueva Esparta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Libertador FC or draw
75%
Libertador FC or Nueva Esparta
72%
Draw or Nueva Esparta
52%

Winning margin

Libertador FC wins by 2+
23%
Nueva Esparta wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Libertador FC 1+ goals
74%
Libertador FC 2+ goals
39%
Libertador FC 3+ goals
16%
Nueva Esparta 1+ goals
59%
Nueva Esparta 2+ goals
22%
Nueva Esparta 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Libertador FC (draw refunded)
66%
Nueva Esparta (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Libertador FC at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

Nueva Esparta away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Libertador FC attack 1.30 + Nueva Esparta defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.36

Nueva Esparta attack 0.58 + Libertador FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Libertador FC scores more
48%
level
28%
Nueva Esparta scores more
25%

Libertador FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Libertador FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Libertador FC 1–1 Nueva Esparta

Libertador FC and Nueva Esparta drew 1-1 in Segunda División on July 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental de Maturín in Maturín.