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Nueva Esparta vs Héroes de Falcón — Segunda División 2018

Nueva Esparta
Nueva Esparta
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Héroes de Falcón
Héroes de Falcón
6/4/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Dynamo La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Nueva Esparta45%
×Draw28%
Héroes de Falcón27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nueva Esparta
1.33
Héroes de Falcón
0.95

Nueva Esparta creates 40% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 55 away

creates per match

Nueva Esparta
1.13
Héroes de Falcón
0.87

allows per match

Nueva Esparta
1.03
Héroes de Falcón
1.53

finishing

Nueva Esparta+0.00on par
Héroes de Falcón+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nueva Esparta ↓

Héroes de Falcón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nueva Esparta or draw
73%
Nueva Esparta or Héroes de Falcón
72%
Draw or Héroes de Falcón
55%

Winning margin

Nueva Esparta wins by 2+
21%
Héroes de Falcón wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nueva Esparta 1+ goals
74%
Nueva Esparta 2+ goals
38%
Nueva Esparta 3+ goals
15%
Héroes de Falcón 1+ goals
61%
Héroes de Falcón 2+ goals
25%
Héroes de Falcón 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nueva Esparta (draw refunded)
63%
Héroes de Falcón (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nueva Esparta at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.03 · 38 matches

Héroes de Falcón away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.53 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nueva Esparta attack 1.13 + Héroes de Falcón defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Héroes de Falcón attack 0.87 + Nueva Esparta defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nueva Esparta scores more
45%
level
28%
Héroes de Falcón scores more
27%

Nueva Esparta at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nueva Esparta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nueva Esparta vs Héroes de Falcón

Nueva Esparta and Héroes de Falcón drew 3-3 in Segunda División on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Dynamo La Victoria in Nueva Esparta.