Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Héroes de Falcón vs Nueva Esparta — Segunda División 2018

Héroes de Falcón
Héroes de Falcónadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Nueva Esparta
Nueva Esparta
6/11/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio de Fútbol Ludgero Correia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Héroes de Falcón57%
×Draw25%
Nueva Esparta18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Héroes de Falcón
1.58
Nueva Esparta
0.76

Héroes de Falcón creates 108% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

creates per match

Héroes de Falcón
1.74
Nueva Esparta
0.58

allows per match

Héroes de Falcón
0.93
Nueva Esparta
1.42

finishing

Héroes de Falcón+0.00on par
Nueva Esparta+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Héroes de Falcón ↓

Nueva Esparta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Héroes de Falcón or draw
82%
Héroes de Falcón or Nueva Esparta
75%
Draw or Nueva Esparta
43%

Winning margin

Héroes de Falcón wins by 2+
30%
Nueva Esparta wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Héroes de Falcón 1+ goals
79%
Héroes de Falcón 2+ goals
47%
Héroes de Falcón 3+ goals
21%
Nueva Esparta 1+ goals
53%
Nueva Esparta 2+ goals
18%
Nueva Esparta 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Héroes de Falcón (draw refunded)
76%
Nueva Esparta (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Héroes de Falcón at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.93 · 57 matches

Nueva Esparta away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Héroes de Falcón attack 1.74 + Nueva Esparta defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.58

Nueva Esparta attack 0.58 + Héroes de Falcón defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Héroes de Falcón scores more
57%
level
25%
Nueva Esparta scores more
18%

Héroes de Falcón at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Héroes de Falcón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Héroes de Falcón 3–1 Nueva Esparta

Héroes de Falcón beat Nueva Esparta 3-1 in Segunda División on June 11, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio de Fútbol Ludgero Correia in Falcón.