Nueva Concepción 3–3 Malacateco: Result & Stats

Nueva Concepción

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Malacateco

1/23/2022

Liga Nacional · Clausura - 2Estadio José Luis Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Nueva Concepción41%

×Draw28%

Malacateco31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nueva ConcepciónExpected goals in this matchMalacateco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.07

Nueva Concepción

1.29

Malacateco

1.07

Nueva Concepción creates 21% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 145 away

0.95

creates per match

0.78

1.36

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Nueva Concepción

0.95

Malacateco

0.78

allows per match

Nueva Concepción

1.36

Malacateco

1.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nueva Concepción+0.00on par

Malacateco+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nueva Concepción ↓

Malacateco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nueva Concepción or draw

69%

Nueva Concepción or Malacateco

72%

Draw or Malacateco

59%

Winning margin

Nueva Concepción wins by 2+

19%

Malacateco wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Nueva Concepción 1+ goals

72%

Nueva Concepción 2+ goals

37%

Nueva Concepción 3+ goals

14%

Malacateco 1+ goals

66%

Malacateco 2+ goals

29%

Malacateco 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nueva Concepción (draw refunded)

57%

Malacateco (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nueva Concepción at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Malacateco away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.62 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nueva Concepción attack 0.95 + Malacateco defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.29

Malacateco attack 0.78 + Nueva Concepción defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Nueva Concepción scores more

41%

level

28%

Malacateco scores more

31%

Nueva Concepción at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Nueva Concepción will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff