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Malacateco vs Nueva Concepción — Liga Nacional 2019

Malacateco
Malacateco
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nueva Concepción
Nueva Concepción
3/20/2022Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 13Estadio Municipal Santa Lucía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Malacateco75%
×Draw17%
Nueva Concepción8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malacateco
2.25
Nueva Concepción
0.59

Malacateco creates 281% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 22 away

creates per match

Malacateco
1.55
Nueva Concepción
0.45

allows per match

Malacateco
0.74
Nueva Concepción
2.95

finishing

Malacateco+0.00on par
Nueva Concepción+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malacateco ↓

Nueva Concepción →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Malacateco or draw
92%
Malacateco or Nueva Concepción
83%
Draw or Nueva Concepción
25%

Winning margin

Malacateco wins by 2+
51%
Nueva Concepción wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Malacateco 1+ goals
89%
Malacateco 2+ goals
65%
Malacateco 3+ goals
39%
Nueva Concepción 1+ goals
45%
Nueva Concepción 2+ goals
12%
Nueva Concepción 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Malacateco (draw refunded)
90%
Nueva Concepción (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malacateco at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.74 · 146 matches

Nueva Concepción away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malacateco attack 1.55 + Nueva Concepción defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.25

Nueva Concepción attack 0.45 + Malacateco defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Malacateco scores more
75%
level
17%
Nueva Concepción scores more
8%

Malacateco at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Malacateco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Malacateco 1–0 Nueva Concepción

Malacateco beat Nueva Concepción 1-0 in Liga Nacional on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Santa Lucía in Malacatán.