Nueva Concepción 2–3 Guastatoya: Result & Stats

Nueva Concepción

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Guastatoya

5/4/2022

Liga Nacional · Clausura - 21Estadio José Luis Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Nueva Concepción38%

×Draw29%

Guastatoya33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nueva ConcepciónExpected goals in this matchGuastatoya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.04

Nueva Concepción

1.13

Guastatoya

1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 152 away

0.95

creates per match

0.73

1.36

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Nueva Concepción

0.95

Guastatoya

0.73

allows per match

Nueva Concepción

1.36

Guastatoya

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nueva Concepción+0.00on par

Guastatoya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nueva Concepción ↓

Guastatoya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nueva Concepción or draw

67%

Nueva Concepción or Guastatoya

71%

Draw or Guastatoya

62%

Winning margin

Nueva Concepción wins by 2+

15%

Guastatoya wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Nueva Concepción 1+ goals

68%

Nueva Concepción 2+ goals

31%

Nueva Concepción 3+ goals

11%

Guastatoya 1+ goals

65%

Guastatoya 2+ goals

28%

Guastatoya 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nueva Concepción (draw refunded)

53%

Guastatoya (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nueva Concepción at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Guastatoya away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.30 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nueva Concepción attack 0.95 + Guastatoya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Guastatoya attack 0.73 + Nueva Concepción defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Nueva Concepción scores more

38%

level

29%

Guastatoya scores more

33%

Nueva Concepción at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Nueva Concepción will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff