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Guastatoya vs Nueva Concepción — Liga Nacional 2019

Guastatoya
Guastatoya
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Nueva Concepción
Nueva Concepción
10/27/2021Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 16Estadio David Cordón Hichos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Guastatoya74%
×Draw17%
Nueva Concepción9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guastatoya
2.27
Nueva Concepción
0.64

Guastatoya creates 255% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 22 away

creates per match

Guastatoya
1.59
Nueva Concepción
0.45

allows per match

Guastatoya
0.82
Nueva Concepción
2.95

finishing

Guastatoya+0.00on par
Nueva Concepción+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guastatoya ↓

Nueva Concepción →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Guastatoya or draw
91%
Guastatoya or Nueva Concepción
83%
Draw or Nueva Concepción
26%

Winning margin

Guastatoya wins by 2+
50%
Nueva Concepción wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Guastatoya 1+ goals
90%
Guastatoya 2+ goals
66%
Guastatoya 3+ goals
39%
Nueva Concepción 1+ goals
47%
Nueva Concepción 2+ goals
14%
Nueva Concepción 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Guastatoya (draw refunded)
89%
Nueva Concepción (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guastatoya at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.82 · 152 matches

Nueva Concepción away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.95 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guastatoya attack 1.59 + Nueva Concepción defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.27

Nueva Concepción attack 0.45 + Guastatoya defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Guastatoya scores more
74%
level
17%
Nueva Concepción scores more
9%

Guastatoya at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Guastatoya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guastatoya vs Nueva Concepción

Guastatoya beat Nueva Concepción 2-1 in Liga Nacional on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio David Cordón Hichos in Guastatoya.