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Nueva Chicago vs Deportivo Madryn — Primera Nacional 2026

Nueva Chicago
Nueva Chicago
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Madryn
Deportivo Madryn
7/27/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 25Estadio República de Mataderos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Nueva Chicago39%
×Draw31%
Deportivo Madryn30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nueva Chicago
1.06
Deportivo Madryn
0.90

Nueva Chicago creates 18% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 84 away

creates per match

Nueva Chicago
1.10
Deportivo Madryn
0.89

allows per match

Nueva Chicago
0.90
Deportivo Madryn
1.01

finishing

Nueva Chicago+0.00on par
Deportivo Madryn+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nueva Chicago ↓

Deportivo Madryn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Nueva Chicago or draw
70%
Nueva Chicago or Deportivo Madryn
69%
Draw or Deportivo Madryn
61%

Winning margin

Nueva Chicago wins by 2+
15%
Deportivo Madryn wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Nueva Chicago 1+ goals
65%
Nueva Chicago 2+ goals
29%
Nueva Chicago 3+ goals
9%
Deportivo Madryn 1+ goals
59%
Deportivo Madryn 2+ goals
23%
Deportivo Madryn 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Nueva Chicago (draw refunded)
56%
Deportivo Madryn (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nueva Chicago at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 129 matches

Deportivo Madryn away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nueva Chicago attack 1.10 + Deportivo Madryn defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.06

Deportivo Madryn attack 0.89 + Nueva Chicago defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Nueva Chicago scores more
39%
level
31%
Deportivo Madryn scores more
30%

Nueva Chicago at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nueva Chicago will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Nueva Chicago 1–1 Deportivo Madryn

Nueva Chicago and Deportivo Madryn drew 1-1 in Primera Nacional on July 27, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio República de Mataderos in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.