Deportivo Madryn 1–0 Nueva Chicago: Result & Stats

Deportivo Madryn

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nueva Chicago

8/21/2022

Primera Nacional · Round 30Estadio Abel Sastre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Deportivo Madryn49%

×Draw30%

Nueva Chicago22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo MadrynExpected goals in this matchNueva Chicago

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.73

Deportivo Madryn

1.25

Nueva Chicago

0.73

Deportivo Madryn creates 71% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 126 away

1.27

creates per match

0.74

0.72

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Deportivo Madryn

1.27

Nueva Chicago

0.74

allows per match

Deportivo Madryn

0.72

Nueva Chicago

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Madryn+0.00on par

Nueva Chicago+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Madryn ↓

Nueva Chicago →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Madryn or draw

78%

Deportivo Madryn or Nueva Chicago

70%

Draw or Nueva Chicago

51%

Winning margin

Deportivo Madryn wins by 2+

22%

Nueva Chicago wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Deportivo Madryn 1+ goals

71%

Deportivo Madryn 2+ goals

36%

Deportivo Madryn 3+ goals

13%

Nueva Chicago 1+ goals

52%

Nueva Chicago 2+ goals

17%

Nueva Chicago 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Madryn (draw refunded)

69%

Nueva Chicago (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Madryn at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.72 · 86 matches

Nueva Chicago away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.23 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Madryn attack 1.27 + Nueva Chicago defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.25

Nueva Chicago attack 0.74 + Deportivo Madryn defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Deportivo Madryn scores more

49%

level

30%

Nueva Chicago scores more

22%

Deportivo Madryn at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Deportivo Madryn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff