Nublense 5–0 Cobresal: Result & Stats

Nublense

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Cobresal

G. Sosa 81', 45', 39', 32'

F. Mateos 65'

12/7/2025

Primera División · Round 30Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzun Arenas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Nublense45%

×Draw23%

Cobresal32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NublenseExpected goals in this matchCobresal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.50

Nublense

1.82

Cobresal

1.50

Nublense creates 21% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

1.15

creates per match

1.66

1.34

allows per match

2.49

creates per match

Nublense

1.15

Cobresal

1.66

allows per match

Nublense

1.34

Cobresal

2.49

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

-0.66scores less than expected

finishing

Nublense-0.25scores less

Cobresal-0.66scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nublense ↓

Cobresal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Nublense or draw

68%

Nublense or Cobresal

77%

Draw or Cobresal

55%

Winning margin

Nublense wins by 2+

24%

Cobresal wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Nublense 1+ goals

84%

Nublense 2+ goals

54%

Nublense 3+ goals

27%

Cobresal 1+ goals

78%

Cobresal 2+ goals

44%

Cobresal 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Nublense (draw refunded)

59%

Cobresal (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nublense at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.34 · 10 matches

Cobresal away — creates 1.66, concedes 2.49 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nublense attack 1.15 + Cobresal defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.82

Cobresal attack 1.66 + Nublense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Nublense scores more

45%

level

23%

Cobresal scores more

32%

Nublense at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Nublense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

G. Sosa

Nublense · F

10.0

Match Events

28'

30'

32'

39'

45'

46'

46'

D. Cespedes← C. Mesias

57'

62'

62'

65'

69'

D. Sanhueza← G. Graciani

75'

G. Segura← B. Cerezo

75'

C. Montecinos← L. Reyes

79'

81'

83'

86'

88'

Jorge PinosCard upgrade

89'

Vicente Fernández

90+5'

F. Bechtholdt← C. Moreno

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NublenseCobresal

Overview

72%Possession28%

25Total Shots8

7Corners1

11Fouls7

Shots

25Total Shots8

10On Target4

9Off Target1

6Blocked3

20Inside Box4

5Outside Box4

Passing

72%Possession28%

677Total Passes261

621Accurate Passes193

92%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

11Fouls7

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1