Cobresal 1–1 Nublense: Result & Stats

Cobresal

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Nublense

F. Trinanes 45'

P. Rubio 14'

6/22/2025

Primera División · Round 15Estadio El Cobre de El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Cobresal52%

×Draw23%

Nublense25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CobresalExpected goals in this matchNublense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.21

Cobresal

1.82

Nublense

1.21

Cobresal creates 50% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.86

creates per match

1.30

1.12

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Cobresal

1.86

Nublense

1.30

allows per match

Cobresal

1.12

Nublense

1.78

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Cobresal-0.19scores less

Nublense-0.39scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cobresal ↓

Nublense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Cobresal or draw

75%

Cobresal or Nublense

77%

Draw or Nublense

48%

Winning margin

Cobresal wins by 2+

29%

Nublense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Cobresal 1+ goals

84%

Cobresal 2+ goals

54%

Cobresal 3+ goals

27%

Nublense 1+ goals

70%

Nublense 2+ goals

34%

Nublense 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Cobresal (draw refunded)

67%

Nublense (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cobresal at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.12 · 6 matches

Nublense away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.78 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cobresal attack 1.86 + Nublense defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.82

Nublense attack 1.30 + Cobresal defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Cobresal scores more

52%

level

23%

Nublense scores more

25%

Cobresal at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Cobresal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

C. Mesias

Cobresal · M

8.7

Match Events

2'

14'

36'

37'

42'

45'

F. Trinanes↳ C. Mesias

58'

A. Marquez← F. Trinanes

61'

G. Graciani← P. Sanchez

61'

G. Sosa← P. Rubio

61'

M. Rodriguez← M. Plaza

84'

Gabriel Graciani

86'

R. Gonzalez← F. Mateos

90+3'

D. Sanhueza← B. Cerezo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CobresalNublense

Overview

44%Possession56%

14Total Shots14

3Corners11

11Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots14

5On Target4

6Off Target7

3Blocked3

6Inside Box8

8Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

320Total Passes392

248Accurate Passes303

78%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1