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Ntopwa vs Kamuzu Barracks — Super League 2026

Ntopwa
Ntopwa
FT
1 – 3
Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
7/4/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ntopwa32%
×Draw28%
Kamuzu Barracks40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ntopwa
1.11
Kamuzu Barracks
1.27

Kamuzu Barracks creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 81 away

creates per match

Ntopwa
1.11
Kamuzu Barracks
1.00

allows per match

Ntopwa
1.53
Kamuzu Barracks
1.11

finishing

Ntopwa+0.00on par
Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ntopwa ↓

Kamuzu Barracks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ntopwa or draw
60%
Ntopwa or Kamuzu Barracks
72%
Draw or Kamuzu Barracks
68%

Winning margin

Ntopwa wins by 2+
13%
Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ntopwa 1+ goals
67%
Ntopwa 2+ goals
30%
Ntopwa 3+ goals
10%
Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
72%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
36%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ntopwa (draw refunded)
45%
Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ntopwa at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Kamuzu Barracks away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ntopwa attack 1.11 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.11

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.00 + Ntopwa defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ntopwa scores more
32%
level
28%
Kamuzu Barracks scores more
40%

Kamuzu Barracks at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kamuzu Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Ntopwa 1–3 Kamuzu Barracks

Kamuzu Barracks beat Ntopwa 3-1 in Super League on July 4, 2021.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.