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Kamuzu Barracks vs Ntopwa — Super League 2026

Kamuzu Barracks
Kamuzu Barracks
FT
2 – 2
Ntopwa
Ntopwa
1/2/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 5CIVO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kamuzu Barracks57%
×Draw26%
Ntopwa18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kamuzu Barracks
1.54
Ntopwa
0.73

Kamuzu Barracks creates 111% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kamuzu Barracks
1.07
Ntopwa
0.69

allows per match

Kamuzu Barracks
0.77
Ntopwa
2.00

finishing

Kamuzu Barracks+0.00on par
Ntopwa+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kamuzu Barracks ↓

Ntopwa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Kamuzu Barracks or draw
82%
Kamuzu Barracks or Ntopwa
74%
Draw or Ntopwa
43%

Winning margin

Kamuzu Barracks wins by 2+
30%
Ntopwa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kamuzu Barracks 1+ goals
79%
Kamuzu Barracks 2+ goals
45%
Kamuzu Barracks 3+ goals
20%
Ntopwa 1+ goals
52%
Ntopwa 2+ goals
17%
Ntopwa 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kamuzu Barracks (draw refunded)
76%
Ntopwa (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kamuzu Barracks at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.77 · 83 matches

Ntopwa away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kamuzu Barracks attack 1.07 + Ntopwa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.54

Ntopwa attack 0.69 + Kamuzu Barracks defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kamuzu Barracks scores more
57%
level
26%
Ntopwa scores more
18%

Kamuzu Barracks at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kamuzu Barracks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kamuzu Barracks 2–2 Ntopwa

Kamuzu Barracks and Ntopwa drew 2-2 in Super League on January 2, 2021.

The match was played at CIVO Stadium in Lilongwe.