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Ntopwa vs Be Forward Wanderers — Super League 2026

Ntopwa
Ntopwa
FT
0 – 0
Be Forward Wanderers
Be Forward Wanderers
8/21/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Mpira Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ntopwa23%
×Draw27%
Be Forward Wanderers50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ntopwa
0.86
Be Forward Wanderers
1.40

Be Forward Wanderers creates 63% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 82 away

creates per match

Ntopwa
1.11
Be Forward Wanderers
1.26

allows per match

Ntopwa
1.53
Be Forward Wanderers
0.61

finishing

Ntopwa+0.00on par
Be Forward Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ntopwa ↓

Be Forward Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ntopwa or draw
50%
Ntopwa or Be Forward Wanderers
73%
Draw or Be Forward Wanderers
77%

Winning margin

Ntopwa wins by 2+
8%
Be Forward Wanderers wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Ntopwa 1+ goals
58%
Ntopwa 2+ goals
21%
Ntopwa 3+ goals
6%
Be Forward Wanderers 1+ goals
75%
Be Forward Wanderers 2+ goals
41%
Be Forward Wanderers 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ntopwa (draw refunded)
32%
Be Forward Wanderers (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ntopwa at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

Be Forward Wanderers away — creates 1.26, concedes 0.61 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ntopwa attack 1.11 + Be Forward Wanderers defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.86

Be Forward Wanderers attack 1.26 + Ntopwa defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ntopwa scores more
23%
level
27%
Be Forward Wanderers scores more
50%

Be Forward Wanderers at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Be Forward Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ntopwa vs Be Forward Wanderers

Ntopwa and Be Forward Wanderers drew 0-0 in Super League on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Mpira Stadium in Blantyre.