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Be Forward Wanderers vs Ntopwa — Super League 2026

Be Forward Wanderers
Be Forward Wanderers
FT
4 – 1
Ntopwa
Ntopwa
4/14/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 9Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Be Forward Wanderers68%
×Draw20%
Ntopwa11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Be Forward Wanderers
1.98
Ntopwa
0.66

Be Forward Wanderers creates 200% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 16 away

creates per match

Be Forward Wanderers
1.95
Ntopwa
0.69

allows per match

Be Forward Wanderers
0.63
Ntopwa
2.00

finishing

Be Forward Wanderers+0.00on par
Ntopwa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Be Forward Wanderers ↓

Ntopwa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Be Forward Wanderers or draw
89%
Be Forward Wanderers or Ntopwa
80%
Draw or Ntopwa
32%

Winning margin

Be Forward Wanderers wins by 2+
43%
Ntopwa wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Be Forward Wanderers 1+ goals
86%
Be Forward Wanderers 2+ goals
59%
Be Forward Wanderers 3+ goals
31%
Ntopwa 1+ goals
48%
Ntopwa 2+ goals
14%
Ntopwa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Be Forward Wanderers (draw refunded)
86%
Ntopwa (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Be Forward Wanderers at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.63 · 82 matches

Ntopwa away — creates 0.69, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Be Forward Wanderers attack 1.95 + Ntopwa defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.98

Ntopwa attack 0.69 + Be Forward Wanderers defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Be Forward Wanderers scores more
68%
level
20%
Ntopwa scores more
11%

Be Forward Wanderers at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Be Forward Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Be Forward Wanderers vs Ntopwa

Be Forward Wanderers beat Ntopwa 4-1 in Super League on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at Kamuzu Stadium in Blantyre.