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Nsuopun Fidelity vs Elmina Sharks — Division One League 2025

Nsuopun Fidelity
Nsuopun Fidelity
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Elmina Sharks
Elmina Sharks
4/12/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 26

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nsuopun Fidelity57%
×Draw25%
Elmina Sharks18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nsuopun Fidelity
1.60
Elmina Sharks
0.77

Nsuopun Fidelity creates 108% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nsuopun Fidelity
1.93
Elmina Sharks
0.67

allows per match

Nsuopun Fidelity
0.87
Elmina Sharks
1.27

finishing

Nsuopun Fidelity+0.00on par
Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsuopun Fidelity ↓

Elmina Sharks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Nsuopun Fidelity or draw
82%
Nsuopun Fidelity or Elmina Sharks
75%
Draw or Elmina Sharks
43%

Winning margin

Nsuopun Fidelity wins by 2+
31%
Elmina Sharks wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Nsuopun Fidelity 1+ goals
80%
Nsuopun Fidelity 2+ goals
47%
Nsuopun Fidelity 3+ goals
22%
Elmina Sharks 1+ goals
54%
Elmina Sharks 2+ goals
18%
Elmina Sharks 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Nsuopun Fidelity (draw refunded)
76%
Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsuopun Fidelity at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Elmina Sharks away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsuopun Fidelity attack 1.93 + Elmina Sharks defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.60

Elmina Sharks attack 0.67 + Nsuopun Fidelity defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nsuopun Fidelity scores more
57%
level
25%
Elmina Sharks scores more
18%

Nsuopun Fidelity at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nsuopun Fidelity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Nsuopun Fidelity 1–0 Elmina Sharks

Nsuopun Fidelity beat Elmina Sharks 1-0 in Division One League on April 12, 2026.