Elmina Sharks 0–1 Nsuopun Fidelity: Result & Stats

Elmina Sharks

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nsuopun Fidelity

12/14/2025

Division One League · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Elmina Sharks44%

×Draw30%

Nsuopun Fidelity26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elmina SharksExpected goals in this matchNsuopun Fidelity

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.83

Elmina Sharks

1.17

Nsuopun Fidelity

0.83

Elmina Sharks creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.33

creates per match

0.73

0.93

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Elmina Sharks

1.33

Nsuopun Fidelity

0.73

allows per match

Elmina Sharks

0.93

Nsuopun Fidelity

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elmina Sharks+0.00on par

Nsuopun Fidelity+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elmina Sharks ↓

Nsuopun Fidelity →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Elmina Sharks or draw

74%

Elmina Sharks or Nsuopun Fidelity

70%

Draw or Nsuopun Fidelity

56%

Winning margin

Elmina Sharks wins by 2+

19%

Nsuopun Fidelity wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Elmina Sharks 1+ goals

69%

Elmina Sharks 2+ goals

33%

Elmina Sharks 3+ goals

11%

Nsuopun Fidelity 1+ goals

56%

Nsuopun Fidelity 2+ goals

20%

Nsuopun Fidelity 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Elmina Sharks (draw refunded)

63%

Nsuopun Fidelity (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elmina Sharks at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.93 · 15 matches

Nsuopun Fidelity away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elmina Sharks attack 1.33 + Nsuopun Fidelity defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Nsuopun Fidelity attack 0.73 + Elmina Sharks defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Elmina Sharks scores more

44%

level

30%

Nsuopun Fidelity scores more

26%

Elmina Sharks at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Elmina Sharks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff