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Nsoatreman vs Legon Cities — Premier League 2019

Nsoatreman
Nsoatreman
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Legon Cities
Legon Cities
M. Anokye 38'
W. Fuseini 26'
R. Acquah 8'
M. Alidu 89'
10/6/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Nana Professor Koromansa II Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Nsoatreman55%
×Draw29%
Legon Cities16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nsoatreman
1.29
Legon Cities
0.55

Nsoatreman creates 135% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 93 away

creates per match

Nsoatreman
1.20
Legon Cities
0.59

allows per match

Nsoatreman
0.52
Legon Cities
1.38

finishing

Nsoatreman+0.00on par
Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsoatreman ↓

Legon Cities →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Nsoatreman or draw
84%
Nsoatreman or Legon Cities
71%
Draw or Legon Cities
45%

Winning margin

Nsoatreman wins by 2+
26%
Legon Cities wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nsoatreman 1+ goals
72%
Nsoatreman 2+ goals
37%
Nsoatreman 3+ goals
14%
Legon Cities 1+ goals
42%
Legon Cities 2+ goals
11%
Legon Cities 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Nsoatreman (draw refunded)
78%
Legon Cities (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsoatreman at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.52 · 46 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.38 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsoatreman attack 1.20 + Legon Cities defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.29

Legon Cities attack 0.59 + Nsoatreman defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nsoatreman scores more
55%
level
29%
Legon Cities scores more
16%

Nsoatreman at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Nsoatreman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
R. Acquah
26'
W. Fuseini
38'
M. Anokye
65'
C. Kudjoe← C. Kudjoe
65'
A. Yeboah← A. Yeboah
89'
M. Alidu
90+1'
I. Shaibu← I. Shaibu

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nsoatreman vs Legon Cities

Nsoatreman beat Legon Cities 3-1 in Premier League on October 6, 2024.

Goals: R. Acquah (8'), W. Fuseini (26'), M. Anokye (38'), M. Alidu (89').

The match was played at Nana Professor Koromansa II Park in Nsoatre.